SENSNEWS

The Ottawa Senators‘ start to the season has been nothing short of disappointing. The team is upholding an 8-9 record so far, which has them ranked 29 out of 32 teams. Important to note is the amount of games in hand the Senators have over other teams, but these games in hand only matter if you can get points out of them. The eye test has not served the team well, and the analytics back this up as the team has been dreadful across the board. Below, I will delve into an analytical perspective of the Ottawa Senators’ season so far.

All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Ottawa Senators Even Strength Struggles

Even strength has been one of the biggest weaknesses for the Senators this season, which is an awful sign. So far, at even strength this season, the Ottawa Senators have put up the following statistics:

• 48.37 CF% (21st in NHL)

• 46.14 xGF% (27th in NHL)

• 45.67 SCF% (29th in NHL)

• 43.65 HDCF% (30th in NHL)

It is incredibly disheartening to look at these statistics from the Senators when considering the strength of their lineup. Even though fans have been disappointed with an 8-9 start to the season, the Senators are fortunate that their record is not worse. It is unacceptable and shocking that the team has been as poor as they have been at 5v5 this season.

Specialty Teams Struggles

Ottawa Senators Power Play

So far this season, the Ottawa Senator’s power play has been clicking at just 18.92%, which ranks them 20th in the NHL. This is a far cry from the effectiveness of the power play from last season, which was firing at a rate of 23.53% and ranked 8th in the NHL. When looking at the talent that came in and out of the Senator’s lineup over the offseason, there is no excuse for the power play to decline to the extent it has. This team should still be in the top 10 for power play percentage with the firepower in the lineup.

Ottawa Senators Penalty Kill

The penalty kill was another strength of the Ottawa Senators in the 2022/2023 season. The Senators ranked 14th in the NHL for penalty kill last season with a penalty kill percentage of 80.07%. This number has declined once again this season as the Senators currently have a brutal penalty kill that has just a 74.58% success rate. This has them ranked 26th in the NHL.

The underlying message is that the Ottawa Senators seemingly struggle at every facet of the game. The team is ineffective at five-on-five play and has had trouble outscoring their troubles on the man advantage. On top of this, they haven’t been able to keep the puck out of their net on the penalty kill, either. If the team weren’t shooting a great percentage of 10.83% at all strengths, they would be even lower in the standings.

Most Effective Lines This Season (5v5)

* Minimum 50 minutes played together

Stutzle, Joseph, Giroux

The most effective forward line this season has been the trio of Tim Stutzle, Claude Giroux, and Mathieu Joseph (a line recently broken up by DJ Smith). This line has done a great job controlling play at even strength in just under 67 minutes together. The trio has put up the following advanced statistics:

• 61.54 CF%

• 6 Goals For, 2 Against

• 58.75 xGF%

• 63.08 SCF%

• 56.52 HDCF%

This lineup has been dominant so far, and it’s a shame that the coaching staff has already decided to split them up.

Tkachuk, Giroux, Stutzle

The first line of last season has put up some decent numbers this year despite fan opinion. After starting the season together, the former line has also been split up in an effort to balance the lineup. Like most decisions from the coaching staff, this has not worked well:

• 57.20 CF%

• 7 Goals For, 6 Against

• 53.44 xGF%

• 55.93 SCF%

• 56.00 HDCF%

It doesn’t look like either of these lineups will be used against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Friday.

Sanderson, Zub

This lone defensive pair has been dominant for the Ottawa Senators this season. The duo of Zub and Sanderson have been tasked with shutting down the opponent’s best players game in and game out. Even with this difficult role, the two have still controlled the puck more than their opponents:

• 56.35 CF%

• 57.96 xGF%

• 57.89 SCF%

• 57.78 HDCF%

Goaltending Duo

*5 on 5

The goaltending duo has struggled this season statistically, but that is likely more of an indictment on the team’s horrendous defensive play. Joonas Korpisalo has established himself as the team’s starter, while Anton Forsberg has been shaky early on. Joonas Korpisalo has posted a:

• .917 SV%

• 2.89 GAA

• 1.92 GSAx

Anton Forsberg has posted a:

• .856 SV%

• 3.58 GAA

• -4.88 GSAx

Anton Forsberg needs to be better, but Joonas Korpisalo has been a serviceable #1 goaltender at even strength. The issues arise when the Senators cannot defend while on the man advantage. This is also the case at five on five but Korpisalo has been able to mask this structurally unacceptable play.

DJ Smith Needs To Go

Until the Ottawa Senators find themselves a general manager for the future, it looks like this coaching regime will remain behind the bench. It is clear to everybody, including non-Sens fans, that DJ Smith is hurting this team on a nightly basis. Fans and analysts alike have been unable to comprehend the structure or lack thereof, that the Senators play with. Night in and night out, the team looks lost in the defensive zone and is constantly utilizing an unsuccessful dump-and-chase strategy.

The team needs a massive shake-up behind the bench, but unfortunately, it doesn’t sound like that will be coming any time soon. You have to think that if things get too bad, Steve Staios would be forced to fire Smith and hire an interim head coach until they find a GM. But with an 8-9 record, the hand of the Senators management has not yet been forced to make a change.

Until this change is made, I don’t see the Senators finding a way out of this rut. The team just simply cannot perform under the hand of DJ Smith, and it is really disappointing that the fan base has to watch yet another year slip away because of his incompetence behind the bench. The day a coaching change is made, I expect this team to reach a new level with a more possession-focused game plan. All the best to DJ Smith, who seems like an awesome guy by all accounts. But in a results-driven business, it just isn’t working out in Ottawa.